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From
Tao to Dow: Where Do We Go From Here? By Misha Goussev, September 2008, New
York, NY Previously published
by The Wharton Journal |
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NEW
YORK. With the stock market running wild and financial world reshaping itself
in a silent catastrophe most of us are asking the same question in an attempt
to make sense of the reality: where do we go from here? Unlike traditional
disasters, no matter how devastating, the financial disasters cannot be seen,
heard or even felt. Yet, the magnitude of it can be so severe, that the
government is willing to spend close to 1 Trillion US dollars in order to
prevent even a greater damage, let alone, a collapse of the entire financial
system. By comparison, Hurricane Katrina, the costliest hurricane ever in the
US history, cost the United States an estimated $110 billion in damages. What
is worse, unlike a hurricane, a financial tsunami originates from the deep
waters of human psyche, largely mysterious to most, and goes on impacting all
aspects of the global economy in ways we cannot even imagine. So, what should
we expect next and who should we turn to for an answer? The
financial markets are one of the greatest inventions of humanity. Without getting
into a lot of technical (and moral) details, it suffices to say that the
efficient markets are incredibly sophisticated computing systems, capable of
assimilating and quantifying an incomprehensible amount of data about the
past and present and making projections into the future. There is one problem
though – these projections can change directions abruptly and without warning
(consider, for example, the fluctuation of Dow by over 1000 points during the
week of September 15)… Or they can be corrected, by either regulators or
short-sellers… Time and history will show us up to what extend the markets
were right about the future, but to some degree if you trying to make sense
of where the markets are heading now you may as well be using a crystal ball… Speaking
of the crystal ball… Ancient Chinese have developed a system to navigate and
manage change. They understood that
change was an inevitable part of
life. But they also understood that change was a product of the myriad of forces,
both visible and invisible, all of which influenced the flow of events and
shaped qualities of the present moment exactly as it should be. They called
their system the I Ching or, in
translation, the Book of Change.
Venerated by emperors and scholars, the book was labeled as superstition in
modern China for its use in the art of divination, or the ability to foresee
the future... The
subject of the I Ching deserves at least a separate article, if not a book
(and dozens have been written). Without getting into the technical details, I
would like to share with you the advice I got from this ancient text in
response to my question: “Where do the
markets go from here?” “PUSHING UPWARD”, I Ching replied, “Activity grounded in truth brings progress
and good fortune… Progress as a tree does, bending around obstacles rather
than confronting them, pushing upward steadily but gently… The time is ripe
for progress if you put forth an effort that is innocent, sincere, and
balanced.” The I Ching further comments on the path to success: “Success is attained as a result of your
careful attention to self-examination and self-improvement”. Despite the
positive tone, the I Ching also cautions us to endure as the situation
progresses further and “remain steady
and allow the world to reshape itself”. “It is not a time to let the ego swell with successes nor to despair
at misfortunes. It is simply a time to hold to the path of essential truth.”
“It is likely that a change has occurred, or is about to. It is your
responsibility to hold your course and go on without regarding this change,”
counsels I Ching. I
would not take the burden of interpreting the words of this ancient text for
the readers and sharing my understanding of this message. The advice was
given specifically to me in response to my question. Every person is
different and it is conceivable that different people would be given
different message. Once thing I do want to share. Spending ten minutes
consulting the I Ching gave me a
tangible sense of peace, clarity and stability so much needed in the time
chaos and turmoil. The sense, which I could not get from the conflicting and
disturbing news and media updates. It as if I heard the voice of wisdom
speaking to me through the centuries, the voice which seemed to saying “…and this too shall pass…” I
would like to finish with a quote from The
Tao of Organization book by Thomas Cleary on the role of the I Ching in business analysis: “Analysis and projection are fundamental
elements of rational ‘divination’, much as is done in the markets, whether
for the sake of an orderly market or for the sake of personal advantage. The
I Ching includes an extra element, one that is often the deciding factor.
This is the element of the possibilities and practicalities of human development.
Throughout its long history, the I Ching has probably drawn as much interest
along these lines as it has for its well-known use in projection, and in
practice the analytic, projective, and developmental elements must always
work together in some way.”[1]▪ |
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